Philippine Real Estate: H1 2024 vs. H1 2025--Election Impact, Supply Shifts and Emerging Trends

The Philippine real estate market is undergoing a dynamic transformation, shaped by the 2025 elections, economic policies, and shifting demand. This report compares H1 2024 (pre-election) vs. H1 2025 (post-election) trends, analyzing vertical vs. horizontal growth, supply imbalances, and major developments--backed by the latest industry data.

1. Market Sentiment: Pre-Election (H1 2024) vs. Post-Election (H1 2025)

H1 2024: Caution & Selective Investment

• Office Market Recovery: Vacancy rates dropped to 14.2% (JLL Q1 2024) as BPO's and flexible workspaces expanded.
• Residential Slowdown: High-end condo sales dipped 10% YoY due to election uncertainty (Colliers).
• Industrial Boom: Warehouse demand surge 25% YoY near ports and highways (KMC Savills).

H1 2025: Policy Clarity and Accelerated Growth

• Office Demand Boost: Post-election, vacancy rates fell further to 12.5% (JLL Q2 2025) as foreign firms expanded.
• Luxury Condo Rebound: Sales rose 80% QoQ as developers launched election-delayed projects (Santos Knight Frank).
• Affordable Housing Push: Gov'ts Pambansang Pabahay accelerated, with 50,000 new units in H1 (DSHUD).

Key takeaway: Elections caused a short-term dip in luxury/residential but boosted industrial and post-election office demand.

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2. Vertical vs. Horizontal Growth: Regional Breakdown

Metro Manila (Vertical Focus--Oversupply Risk Lingers)

Provinces (Horizontal Dominance--Industrial Housing Boom)

Insight: Provinces outpaced NCR in growth due to infrastructure and affordability

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3. Oversupply vs. Shortage: 2024 vs. 2025

Oversupply Risks

Critical Shortages

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4. Major Developments Reshaping 2025

Infrastructure Driving Growth

• New Manila Int'l Airport (2027): Bulacan land prices +25% since 2024.
• North-South Commuter Railway: Calamba to Clark land values up to 20%.

Sustainability & Tech Trends

• 40% of new offices are LEED-certified (PhilGCB).
• AI Data Centers: Rising demand in Clark, Batangas.

Conclusion: 2025 Outlook

• Industrial & Logistics - Still the hottest sector (near airports, ports).
• Affordable Housing - Biggest opportunity (govt/private partnerships needed). 

2026 Forecast: If interest rates drop, a full-market rebound is likely.

copyright statement 

© 2025 Mariza Lendez. All rights reserved. www.chikicha.com 

This article, “Philippine Real Estate: H1 2024 vs. H1 2025--Election Impact, Supply Shifts and Emerging Trends" is an original work by Mariza, a Doctor in Business Administration (Candidate). It is protected by copyright and may not be copied, distributed, or reused without permission, except for brief quotes with proper credit.

Disclaimer:
This guide is for informational purposes only. It does not promote or sell any investment. The insights are based on independent research, enhanced by AI tools to gather verified data from trusted sources like the IMF, World Bank, ASEAN reports, and official Philippine government publications.

 citation: Lendez, Mariza [2025]. "Philippine Real Estate: H1 2024 vs. H1 2025--Election Impact, Supply Shifts and Emerging Trends" URL] https://chikicha.com/trending-stories/philippine-real-estate--h1-2024-vs-h1-2025-election-impact--supply-shifts-and-emerging-trends

The content reflects the author's academic lens and ongoing dissertation titled “Designing a Purpose‑Driven Retirement Model Based on the IKIGAI Philosophy.”

Citations: (Latest Reports)

Colliers (Q2 2025) - Residential & Office Market Updates.

JLL (H1 2025) - Manila Office Demand Report.

DHSUD (2025) - Pambansang Pabahay Mid-Year Review.

Leechiu (2025) - Industrial & Provincial Growth.