The first half of 2025 has reshaped Southeast Asia's economic landscape, with Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia making aggressive moves to attract foreign investment, boost real estate, and outpace regional rivals. This report compares their H1 2024 vs. H1 2025 performance, focusing on;
- Real estate trends (residential, office, industrial)
- Economic growth drivers (FDI, infrastructure, policy shifts)
- How the Philippines compare
1. Economic Growth: H1 2024 vs. H1 2025
THAILAND
- H1 2024: Slow recovery due to political uncertainty post-election (GDP growth: 2.8%).
- H1 2025: Digital Wallet Stimulus ($14B cash handout) boosted consumer spending (GDP growth: 3.5%).
- Real Estate Impact: Condo demand rose in Bangkok & Phuket, but oversupply remains in luxury segment (CBRE).
VIETNAM
- H1 2024: Manufacturing slowdown (exports - 12% YoY) due to global demand drop.
- H1 2025: Electronics & semi-conductor rebound (Samsung, Intel expansions) pushed GDP to 6.2%.
- Real Estate Impact: Industrial parks (near Hanoi/Ho Chi Minh) surged, but Hanoi condo glut worsened (Savills).
MALAYSIA
- H1 2024: Weak ringgit hurt imports but boosted tourism.
- H1 2025: New FDI-friendly policies (tax breaks for tech firms) lifted GDP to 4.8%.
- Real Estate Impact: KL office vacancy rose to 24%, but Penang industrial demand spiked (Knight Frank).
INDONESIA
- H1 2024: Nickel export ban strained growth (GDP: 4.9%).
- H1 2025: New capital Nusantara construction accelerated (GDP: 5.3%).
- Real Estate Impact: Jakarta condo sales dropped 15%, but Bali villas & Industrial East Java boomed (Colliers.).
PHILIPPINES COMPARISON
- H1 2024: Election jitters slowed luxury real estate.
- H1 2025: BPO & industrial demand surged post-election (GDP: 5.8%).
- Advantage: Stronger English-workforce vs. Vietnam/Indonesia.
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2. Real Estate Deep Dive: Key Trends
Office Market
| Country | H1 2024 Vacancy | H1 2025 Vacancy | Trend |
| Philippines | 14.2% | 12.5% (BPO recovery) | 📈 |
| Vietnam | 18% (HCMC) | 20% (oversupply) | 📉 |
| Malaysia | 22% (KL) | 24% (weak demand) | 📉 |
| Thailand | 15% (Bangkok) | 13% (tourism rebound) | 📈 |
Takeaway: Philippines & Thailand lead in office recovery; Vietnam/Malaysia struggle.
RESIDENTIAL (Condo vs. Townships)
- Vietnam: Hanoi/HCMC oversupply (50,000 unsold units).
- Thailand: Luxury Bangkok condos stagnant, but Phuket/Bali vacation homes up 20%.
- Malaysia: KL high-rises slow, but Iskandar (Johor) grew due to Singapore spilloever.
- Philippines: Affordable housing shortage (6.7M gap) vs. luxury condo oversupply.
Industrial & Logistics
- Vietnam: #1 in SE Asia for factories (Samsung, LG expansions).
- Malaysia: Penang tech hubs (Intel, Tesla, suppliers).
- Philippines: Laguna/Cavite industrial praks rising but lag behind Vietnam.
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3. Who's Winning? Competitive Edge in 2025
| Factor | Philippines | Vietnam | Thailand | Malaysia | Indonesia |
| Manufacturing | 🌕(Growing) | 💚 (Leader) | 🌕(Auto) | 💚(Tech) | 🌕(Nickel) |
| BPO/IT | 💚 (#1 ) | 🌕 (Rising) | 🔴 (Weak) | 🔴(Small) | 🔴 (Low) |
| Toursim Real Estate | 🔴 | 🌕(Danang) | 💚 (Bangkok /Phuket) | 🌕(Langkawi) | 💚 (Bali) |
| Infrastructure | 🌕 (NSCR, Bulacan Airport) | 💚 (North-South Expressway) | 💛 (EEC) | 🔴 (Delays) | 💚(Nusantara) |
💚 = Leading / 🌕 = Moderate / 🔴 = Lagging
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4. key Takeaways: Who's the Best Investment Bet?
- Vietnam: Best for manufacturing/industrial.
- Philippines: Top for BPO/office demand & REITs.
- Thailand: Leader in tourism real estate.
- Indonesia: High-risk, high-reward in new capital Nusantara.
- Malaysia: Tech-driven industrial grwoth in Penang.
Philippines' Advantage:
✅ English proficiency (outsourcing edge).
✅ Young population (housing demand).
⚠️ Must fix: infrastructure delays, condo oversupply.
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Data Sources:
- CBRE (Thailand, Vietnam) - Office & Residential Reports.
- Savills Vietnam - Condo Oversupply Analysis.
- Knight Frank Malaysia - Industrial & Office Trends.
- Colliers Indonesia - Nusantara Development Update.
- JLL Philippines - BPO & Industrial demand.
Cross-Country Comparisons
- World Bank SE Update: July 2025 Regional Outlook
- UBS Global Real Estate: 2025 Bubble Index (annual report, next due Sep 2025)
- ADB Housing Report: 2025 ASEAB Housing Needs
thanks to the photo #Galeriyolda @pixabay.